Does The Missouri Primary Matter Anymore? | News

In a red hot election year, Missouri's primary is just 8 days away.  Even with Republican contender Rick Santorum campaigning in St. Charles County Monday, there were questions  about how much Missouri really mattered in terms of picking presidents anymore. 

People were voting absentee for the February 7th primary, almost right up to closing time, Monday, even though their votes didn't officially count for anything. 

Long time St. Louis pollster and political, Dr. Ken Warren of Saint Louis University said, as with the primary, Missouri might not be much of a factor in the November election.

Santorum's stop may be about as good as it gets in Missouri this primary season because winning the primary here brings no candidate closer to the Republican nomination.   President Obama has no strong opposition on the Democratic side.

"They can`t waste their time on states like Missouri where it's non-binding. In fact, after it's over, how many delegates have they won? None." said Warren, making a 'zero' with his hand for emphasis. 

Still, the ballots are ready; absentee voting is already underway. On February 7th, 454 polling places in St. Louis County and thousands more across the state will be staffed and open just like on any other election day;  even though party insiders will award delegates for the Republican nomination during caucuses, March 17th.

"I'm of the opinion that voting is a right, it`s not a privilege.   Any time there's an election I advise people to come out and vote," said St. Louis County Elections Director Rita Days. 
As a state legislator, she introduced the legislation to make Missouri a primary state. 

Republican party leaders decided the primary would be non-binding; instead, they'd hold caucuses this time.

Still, Days said the primary could have quite an impact on the caucuses. 

Obviously Santorum thinks so.

"That [his campaign stop] tells me that someone is paying attention to Missouri and that`s what we want. We want to be part of it.  We want to be in the game; want to be a part of the fray," Days said.  "They'll look at the popular vote and they'll govern themselves accordingly. I happen to think that it will count in some respects, if just simply from the mindset that these are the numbers and these are the candidates that our people like." 

"Santorum wants to campaign to make a showing in order to influence the party elite in Missouri who will vote in the caucus.  Gingrich just ignored it.  Gingrich is not even on the ballot in Missouri because he thought it was sort of a waste of time.  I think it is," Warren said.

He said Missouri`s days of hosting frequent campaign stops may be over;  Missouri  lost its standing as a bellweather state, after John McCain narrowly beat President Obama in 2008 and Obama won the presidency anyway.  Prior to that, he said the winner in November won Missouri in every election  but one for nearly a century.  He said the falloff actually began in 2004, when President Busch defeated Sen. John Kerry, en route to winning a second term as president. 

"Kerry literally withdrew in Missouri.  He didn`t campaign in Missouri after early October, because he felt the evangelical vote because he felt the evangelical vote, to quote him actually, was a nut that was too hard to crack in Missouri... Missouri has 13% more evangelicals as the nation as a whole.  Evangelicals vote pretty much as a bloc, solidly for the Republican candidate...so you will see a lot less attention paid to Missouri."

He said interested in Missouri had waned on all fronts since 2008.

"Missouri was really a hot number.  People came from Austria, Japan, France, Britain, everywhere, Australia, to interview political pundits in Missouri because it was considered to be the best battleground state and best bellweather state and it really was.  But you won`t see that any anymore because the word is out:  Missouri has gone republican... the new battleground states are actually states like Nevada, New Mexico.  Ohio remains a good battleground state, Florida," Warren said.

He said even North Carolina had supplanted Missouri in 'battleground' status.

"We are a state that you would call, `leaning red`," Warren said. 

He added that Missouri would lose revenue the campaigns bring, from staff hotel stays to ad dollars.

There was also the estimated cost of the non-binding primary:  $6-$7 million.

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